Peak Car? Check Your Data

The Nationwide Family Journey Survey (NHTS) is an in depth research of journey exercise sponsored by the U.S. Division of Transportation. Outcomes of the 2022 model had been lately launched, together with the next graph which exhibits an enormous (38%!) decline in common journeys per capita by all modes.

This was cited as proof of peak automotive and an total decline in out-of-home actions in Angie Schmitt’s latest article, No one’s Leaving the Home Anymore.

Nevertheless, as Joe Cortright factors out in Dangerous Information: Not a Decline in Journey, this in all probability displays main adjustments within the survey methodology (earlier variations relied on a journey diary during which contributors recorded their journey exercise when it occurred, the 2022 model had them recall journeys they made the day before today, a a lot much less dependable technique) reasonably than precise adjustments in journey exercise. Joe supplied the next picture.

Nevertheless, different, extra dependable knowledge sources additionally point out that per capita car journey is peaking whereas demand for different modes is growing, as mentioned in my report, The Future Is not What It Used to Be: Altering Developments and Their Implications for Transport Planning. This displays a mixture of things together with car journey saturation, getting older inhabitants, rising gas costs, elevated urbanization, altering client preferences, improved accessibility choices (akin to telework, work-at-home and e-bikes) and extra multimodal transportation. Car journey won’t disappear, but it surely signifies that many individuals would like to spend much less money and time on driving, and rely extra on strolling, bicycling and public transportation, supplied they’re handy, snug and reasonably priced.

The truth is, per capita car journey peaked within the US in 2006 and has declined considerably since, as illustrated within the following graph.

U.S. Annual Automobile Journey (FHWA)

Our regional journey surveys right here on Southern Vancouver Island exhibits related developments. Per capita car journey peaked about 2006 and subsequently declined, notably in communities that improved non-auto journey choices. Related reductions are occurring in different North American communities.

That is excellent news total. It signifies that given higher choices vacationers will drive much less and rely extra on non-auto modes, serving to to attain sustainable transportation targets together with native financial growth, elevated affordability, improved public health and well being, and environmental safety.